New here? These four articles show what DocB — Timeline does and why it matters. Each one traces a specific constraint shift from cause to consequence — picking up where mainstream coverage stops.
The best place to start
Every Machine in China’s Battery Line Is Chinese April 3, 2026 · 8 min
Gotion’s solid-state battery hits 90% yield while Northvolt, Cellforce, and ACC collapse in sixty days. The chemistry breakthrough arrived in Hefei. The factory didn’t. This is the site’s highest-rated analysis and the clearest example of constraint migration — from chemistry to manufacturing to pricing power.
Understanding the mechanism
The Cancellation Clause That Closed a Strait April 4, 2026 · 10 min
The Strait of Hormuz didn’t close because of missiles. It closed because Lloyd’s issued 72-hour war-risk cancellations, and Iran filled the insurance vacuum with a $2 million per-tanker toll. This article explains the pattern that runs through almost everything on this site: the constraint isn’t where you think it is.
Export Controls Created the Efficiency They Feared Most April 2, 2026 · 8 min
US chip restrictions were designed to slow Chinese AI capability. Instead they forced Chinese labs to optimise for inference efficiency — and Alibaba’s Qwen hit 700 million downloads running on a MacBook. The policy succeeded at its stated goal and produced the opposite of its intended outcome.
The framework in practice
We’re Bolting Dummy Weights Into Our Most Advanced Fighters March 26, 2026 · 9 min
F-35 Lot 17 delivered without radars. 11,000 munitions expended in 16 days. The US defence industrial base is failing simultaneously at quality and surge capacity. This article traces how the cost of institutional delay gets absorbed by whoever has the least leverage to refuse it.
What to expect
Each edition answers the same question: something changed — which actors adapted, where did the consequence go, and who’s absorbing it now?
Predictions are embedded in every article with specific dates and kill signals — the conditions under which the thesis would be wrong. A public prediction ledger tracking outcomes is coming.